All Things Canadian
has graphed the electoral results of the riding of Ottawa Centre going back thirty years, and the results are interesting:
For the Conservative to win, not only do we need a strong candidate - to be determined on May 15th - but I think we need the Greens to come up to 15-20%. If the NDP and Liberals each get around 25-30%, the Conservatives win the riding with 30%.
I'm certain it's true that a lot of goodwill for Ed Broadbent personally won't remain for the NDP in general, but I can't see the Greens taking half of the NDP vote; 10%, maybe. They're still too fringe. There's also still an awful lot of If going into the premise that the Conservative candidate could win with a three-way split on the left, especially the assumption that voters for the old PCs in 1993, 1997, and 2000 would necessarily vote Conservative now. We've an awful lot of socialists around here, and some of them are in fact the dreaded squishy-Red Tories.
I couldn't in good conscience volunteer for the riding association or Tory campaign team last election, due to specifically election-related work for the previous HM. I've heard that my current employer is a bit of a control freak in that regard, however, maintaining a campaign team entirely within the riding staffed exclusively with his own people, so I may be free and clear to help this time. I certainly hope so, if there's a slight chance it might help make a difference.