based on lessons learned from the Canadian election:
...I predict that we are witnessing the Stephen Harper moment of the Kerry campaign: the point where the momentum stops and the campaign begins its precipitous fall back to earth.
Now that's an analogy I can love. The more I think about it, the more it fits, too - at least, from the pure perception-of-electability angle. Up until the very last week of the campaign, as my (and others') enthusiastic archives will show, it actually seemed possible for not just a Conservative victory, but a Conservative majority - and then it all went to hell. The mushy middle of the Canadian electorate decided to believe the Liberal intimations of Harper's vague, undefined scariness, and voted based on fears of a majority government led by the same.
In Kerry's case, the accusations aren't just wild-eyed scare tactics, but increasingly detailed and well-reasoned amounts of genuine dirt. He's been proven mortal, and the shine is off the campaign. If it's all downhill from here, I...well...I don't want to jinx it. But I'd like to remember the last week of August as a significant point on the timeline, either way.